Afghanistan is becoming the Balkans of the late 19th and early 20th centuries and there is almost no one of Otto von Bismarck’s sagacity and vision to prevent the place from blowing up and damaging the neighbourhood.
April 2021 is the last month of the American and allied troops’ occupation of Afghanistan and there is little likelihood of a change of plans regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the US presidential elections in November.
Countries sharing a border with Afghanistan, which include the Central Asian states, Iran, Pakistan and China, have an equal stake in keeping the situation from blowing up, as do countries and big powers that don’t like the United States, Russia, India, Turkey and the Arab nations.
Afghanistan has never known unbroken central rule as it is usually defined, and it doesn’t have a strong centralising army, like another xenophobic state, Myanmar.
Tribes and warlords determine the power structure on the ground and this phenomenon often defies the Islamic impulses.